Powerful Storm Brewing – Heavy Rain and Gusty Winds likely

An extremely powerful early Fall weather system is brewing and will begin developing as early as tomorrow. A strong low pressure system induced by a strong polar vortex will merge and morph with a disturbance coming out of the Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance moving North out of the Gulf of Mexico will bring an abundant amount of moisture with it. As the warm and moist tropical air moves North, the warm and moist air (latent heat release) will help strengthen the morphed weather system as it travels North along the Spine of the Appalachian Mountains.

The water vapor imagery essentially tells the story this evening. You can see the large area of disturbed weather across portions of the Gulf of Mexico. The second system that will be a factor in this eventual large and phased weather system is a developing weather system across portions of Colorado. The extremely dry air across portions of Arizona and New Mexico is associated with our third player in this developing storm system and that is a very strong jet stream.

Nearly all of our forecast guidance has locked on to a solution of a strong weather system developing and moving into portions of the Midwest and Eastern Ohio Valley.

As the weather system begins to develop along the East Coast on Tuesday, strong and severe storms will be possible across the Southeastern United States. Increasing shear and an extremely tropical and buoyant atmosphere will lead to the threat of tornadoes from Florida into Georgia and eventually South Carolina.

This strengthening weather system will bomb out across portions of the Eastern Ohio Valley, strengthening possibly to as low or near 980 mb. This type of track is rare, as most storms that develop in this manner have a coastal low that transfers off the Mid Atlantic coast and tracks up the Northeast coast verses strengthening over land.

The track of his system means that a very large area will be impacted with heavy rain occurring from Florida all the way up the Appalachians, through the Ohio Valley and into portions of the Interior Northeast.

As the system reaches it’s peak intensity over the Eastern Ohio Valley and Eastern Great Lake states Wednesday and Thursday, extremely strong winds are also possible. You can see the tight wind field noted by the extremely close isobars around the low pressure.

With extremely impressive height falls as the low pressure deepens, it is not out of the question that some light snow could fall across portions of Northern Illinois, Southern and Eastern Wisconsin, Northern and Northwestern Indiana and Western Michigan. Obviously with extremely warm ground temperatures and fairly warm lower and mid level temperatures, no accumulation would occur, but the fact that some wet snowflakes are possible is definitely impressive.

La Niña Returns

This was released by NOAA today…

La Niña, which contributed to extreme weather around the globe during the first half of 2011, has re-emerged in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is forecast to gradually strengthen and continue into winter. Today, forecasters with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center upgraded last month’s La Niña Watch to a La Niña Advisory.

NOAA will issue its official winter outlook in mid-October, but La Niña winters often see drier than normal conditions across the southern tier of the United States and wetter than normal conditions in the Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley.

“This means drought is likely to continue in the drought-stricken states of Texas, Oklahoma and New Mexico,” said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. “La Niña also often brings colder winters to the Pacific Northwest and the northern Plains, and warmer temperatures to the southern states.”

Climate forecasts from NOAA’s National Weather Service give American communities advance notice of what to expect in the coming months so they can prepare for potential impacts. This service is helping the country to become a Weather Ready Nation at a time when extreme weather is on the rise.

Seasonal hurricane forecasters factored the potential return of La Niña into NOAA’s updated 2011 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, issued in August, which called for an active hurricane season. With the development of tropical storm Nate this week, the number of tropical cyclones entered the predicted range of 14-19 named storms.

The strong 2010-11 La Niña contributed to record winter snowfall, spring flooding and drought across the United States, as well as other extreme weather events throughout the world, such as heavy rain in Australia and an extremely dry equatorial eastern Africa.

La Niña is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon located over the tropical Pacific Ocean and results from interactions between the ocean surface and the atmosphere. During La Niña, cooler-than-average Pacific Ocean temperatures influence global weather patterns. La Niña typically occurs every three-to-five years, and back-to-back episodes occur about 50 percent of the time. Current conditions reflect a re-development of the June 2010-May 2011 La Niña episode.

NOAA’s National Weather Service is the primary source of weather data, forecasts and warnings for the United States and its territories. NOAA’s National Weather Service operates the most advanced weather and flood warning and forecast system in the world, helping to protect lives and property and enhance the national economy. Visit us online at weather.gov.

NOAA’s mission is to understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and to conserve and manage our coastal and marine resources. Join us on Facebook , Twitter and our other social media channels.

2011 – 2012 Winter Forecast

2011-2012 Winter Forecast

Issued by Brandon Redmond on August 12^th, 2011

www.IndianaWeatherOnline.com

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Upcoming winter to rival last year’s harsh winter 

 

The 2010-2011 winter was the coldest winter in over 30 years across much of the Northeastern United States. Temperatures during the 200-2011 were well below normal in places like New York, Chicago, Indianapolis, Minneapolis and even New Orleans! Snowfall records were shattered across much of the Midwest and Northeast. With the 2010-2011 winter being so extreme, what can we expect for this upcoming winter?

 

The Winter forecast is compiled based on several factors. Analogs, Oceanic Temperatures, Climatology and Pattern Recognition are just a few of the factors used when making seasonal forecasts. Analogs in meteorology compare the current weather pattern to previous winter patterns. Oceanic temperatures refer to El Niño and La Niña which both refer to the Sea Surface Temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. 

 

One of the main factors used in my long range and winter forecasts are the Sea Surface Temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific and whether our weather pattern is being influenced by La Niña (cooler water temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific) or an El Niño (warmer water temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific). The Sea Surface Temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific provide a regulating force for North American Weather, particularly temperatures and winter storm tracks. 

 

La Niña cools the equatorial seas of the Pacific and the 2010-2011 La Niña was one of the strongest on record. Less warm air rises during La Niña conditions with a cooling influence on the atmosphere that has significant implications on global climate and global weather patterns.

The upcoming 2011-2012 winter will likely be influenced by a weak to moderate La Niña. Oceanic temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific are already cooling and long range indications show a weak to moderate La Niña developing as early as this Fall.  

 

La Niña conditions will likely start off fairly weak and strengthen as we head towards the middle and end of the winter. It will likely take much of the winter before the United States begins feeling the full impacts of La Niña, making the forecast two months of the forecast (December and January) much more difficult. 

 

December looks to start off dry with warmer than normal temperatures as the jet stream will be displaced to the North and West. The far Northwestern United States will see above normal precipitation will the rest of the nation will see relatively quiet weather through the middle of December. With the jet stream displaced to the North, temperatures should climb to above normal values across much of the Nation through the middle of December. By the middle of December, the ridge will begin to break down as a major trough ejects south. As the trough ejects south, significant cyclogenesis (storm development) should occur across the Southern Plains and then transverse across the Central and Midwestern United States. A temporary Greenland Block by the end of December will lead to increased storminess and below normal temperatures across much of the Central and Eastern United States. 

 

 

 

As the La Nina continues to try to build and take hold on the global circulation patterns, January will likely become a transition month. The main story during the month of January will likely be the extreme cold as the Polar Vortex should be displaced significantly farther South than normal. This will lead to a major arctic outbreak across the Eastern two thirds of the United States.

 

 

 

A La Niña like pattern will ensue during February leading to near normal temperatures across most of the Central and Eastern United States. A storm track from the South Central Plains through the Tennessee Valley and into the Middle Atlantic/Northeast will cause increased storminess and potential overrunning situations during the month of February. This will create an increased chance of snow and ice across the Midwest, Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, Middle Atlantic and Northeast.  

 

 

 

With the La Niña pattern developing in February and influencing the global weather and circulation patterns, I would not be surprised to see a colder and snowier pattern continue into March. The potential for overrunning situations will continue into March with a continuing threat of snow and ice across the Midwest, Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, Middle Atlantic and Northeast.

 

Here are my ideas for the entire Winter as to who picks up above normal snowfall & ice. Obviously this is just based off of my forecast storm tracks, areas that receive above normal precipitation and either near normal or below normal temperatures.

 

 

 

In the end, I think the potential for record breaking cold across must of the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and even portions of the Northeast will be the big story this winter. Temperatures across the Plains should stay near normal with above normal temperatures across the Southern Plains and Deep South.

 

Don’t forget, you can book your 2012 Storm Chase Tour with SWATTours.com!

July 19th, 2011 SWATCast

Heat Advisories & Excessive Heat Watches Remain In Effect

The NWS has issued a Heat Advisory today and an Excessive Heat Watch on Wednesday for all of Indiana and Western Ohio. Heat Index readings are expected to climb above 100 degrees through the end of the week. Below is a graphic detailing forecast heat index values through the end of the week.

Don’t forget that you can book your 2012 storm chase tour with SWATTours.com!

Heat Advisories & Excessive Heat Watches Issued

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN  
311 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011  
   
..OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED THIS WEEK  
  
.A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE  
MIDDLE OF THE NATION...AND DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE ASSOCIATED  
HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL ALSO BUILD EASTWARD...AND WILL ENGULF MUCH  
OF THE MIDWEST. CENTRAL INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO FEEL THE HEAT  
THROUGH TODAY...WITH VERY OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED  
FROM TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.  
  
INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-190315-  
/O.NEW.KIND.HT.Y.0003.110719T1800Z-110720T0100Z/  
/O.EXT.KIND.EH.A.0001.110720T0100Z-110722T1900Z/  
CARROLL-WARREN-TIPPECANOE-CLINTON-HOWARD-FOUNTAIN-MONTGOMERY-  
BOONE-TIPTON-HAMILTON-MADISON-DELAWARE-RANDOLPH-VERMILLION-PARKE-  
PUTNAM-HENDRICKS-MARION-HANCOCK-HENRY-VIGO-CLAY-OWEN-MORGAN-  
JOHNSON-SHELBY-RUSH-SULLIVAN-GREENE-MONROE-BROWN-BARTHOLOMEW-  
DECATUR-KNOX-DAVIESS-MARTIN-LAWRENCE-JACKSON-JENNINGS-  
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LAFAYETTE...FRANKFORT...KOKOMO...  
CRAWFORDSVILLE...ANDERSON...MUNCIE...INDIANAPOLIS...TERRE HAUTE...  
SHELBYVILLE...BLOOMINGTON...COLUMBUS...VINCENNES...BEDFORD...  
SEYMOUR  
311 PM EDT MON JUL 18 2011  
   
..HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM EDT TUESDAY  
  
...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING  
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...  
  
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN INDIANAPOLIS HAS ISSUED A HEAT  
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM EDT TUESDAY. THE  
EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING  
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  
  
* THE COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S...AND HIGH  
 HUMIDITY...WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES OF AROUND  
 105 DEGREES ON TUESDAY AND THEN 105 TO 110 DEGREES FROM EARLY  
 AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING EACH DAY DURING THE WATCH PERIOD.  
  
* THE IMPACTS OF HEAT STRESS ARE CUMULATIVE...AND INCREASE EACH  
 DAY THE HEAT LASTS. ANYONE SPENDING SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF  
 TIME OUTDOORS...OR INVOLVED IN STRENUOUS ACTIVITY...WILL BE  
 SUSCEPTIBLE TO SERIOUS AND POTENTIALLY LIFE THREATENING HEAT  
 ILLNESSES.  
  
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
  
AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH MEANS THAT A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HOT  
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND  
HIGH HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO CREATE A DANGEROUS SITUATION IN  
WHICH HEAT ILLNESSES ARE POSSIBLE. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS...STAY  
IN AN AIR-CONDITIONED ROOM...STAY OUT OF THE SUN...AND CHECK UP  
ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS.  
  
TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN  
POSSIBLE...RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR  
EVENING. KNOW THE SIGNS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. WEAR  
LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN POSSIBLE AND DRINK  
PLENTY OF WATER.  
  
TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK...THE OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND  
HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS  
IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY  
HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE  
IS AN EMERGENCY...CALL 9 1 1.  

Heat Wave Continues

The dangerous heat wave continues across much of the Central United States including the Ohio Valley. The dangerous heat wave has prompted the National Weather Service to hoist numerous Heat Advisories, Watches and Warnings. The heat advisories, watches and warnings will likely remain in effect through next weekend.

As of 3:00 PM today (Monday, July 18th, 2011), temperatures are already heating up with 90 degree readings being reported over a large area.

Our forecast guidance shows the heat persisting for much of the week and into the weekend.

Don’t forget, if you have ever wanted to take a storm chase/tornado tour, you can now book your 2012 tour with SWATTours.com

Dangerous Heat Expected This Week

A dangerous heat wave is expected to impact the Eastern 2/3′s of the Nation beginning this weekend and continuing through much of next week. A ridge will build North across the United States allowing a hot dome of air to entrench much of the country. The heat dome along with excessive amounts of moisture and high dewpoints will create very high heat index values. Dewpoint values (an absolute measure of the amount of moisture in the air) will range from 70 to 80 degrees from Sunday through at least Thursday. As outlined below, dewpoint values above 70 begin to create that “sticky” factor in the air, while dewpoints above 75 degrees cause conditions to become extremely miserable.

• Dewpoint below 60 – Not humid at all
• Dewpoint at 65 – Noticeable stickiness
• Dewpoint at 70 – Very sticky
• Dewpoint above 75- Horrible! You are sweating walking to the car!

Dewpoints and humidity values remain comfortable across most of Indiana and Ohio, but humidity levels and dewpoint levels are increasing to our West.

The map above shows dewpoints across Missouri and even into Illinois at or above 70 degrees. Our forecast models/depictions show that dewpoints will increase across Indiana and Western Ohio on Saturday and even more so on Sunday.

To go along with the high dewpoints, temperatures will also increase each day with a stretch of 90 degree or higher days beginning Sunday and likely continuing through Thursday. As the ridge slides East, the dome of heat will be centered on the Ohio Valley on Wednesday and Thursday and the hottest temperatures will likely occur on those days. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will climb into the middle 90′s with even higher readings possible Wednesday and Thursday.

With a long duration heat wave expected, the National Weather Service will likely be issuing Excessive Heat Warnings for much of Indiana and Ohio. This is a dangerous situation due to the prolonged nature of the heat wave. I’ll have updates throughout the weekend so stay tuned!

P.S. If you know of anyone who has ever wanted to take a Storm Chase Tour, direct them to SWATTours.com! Our company is up and running and we are taking reservations for the 2012 season!

Dangerous Severe Weather Outbreak Likely Wednesday

I’m writing this to update everyone on impending weather situation across most of the Midwest, including Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. This could be a very dangerous situation, similar to what has taken place this afternoon in the plains. I will remind you now to keep a weather radio handy at all times, especially one that is battery powered, so if the power goes out in a storm, the radio will still be operational. With that said, lets get to the briefing.

Tomorrow, severe weather initiation will take place sometime between 2 and 4pm in Indiana, a few hours earlier perhaps in Illinois, and later into the evening in Ohio. The same low pressure system that triggered the severe weather outbreak across the central plains will slide off to the east, into the Ohio Valley by mid afternoon. This will bring with it the counterclockwise flow of winds, and since we will be on the eastern side of the low, we will have a rich flow of moisture along with a predominantly southerly flow of winds that will help to raise temperatures and in turn help the storms to become even more intense as a warm front will then surge northward across Indiana in the afternoon hours.

According to the SREF “significant tornado ingredients” model, one of the tools that we use to forecast severe weather, it places an area of 40 over southern Illinois and west central Indiana by 21z, or 5pm. This number is very high, and could mean that the right factors are coming together at the same time to encourage not only severe weather but also the threat of tornadoes.

Again, all the models have come into an agreement with one another that a significant severe weather outbreak will be taking place tomorrow afternoon across the Midwest. Take precautions now so you are ready when or if the dangerous weather situations present themselves. Again, this is not to panic you, rather to inform. Just be alert and make good decisions.

If a tornado WATCH is issued, storms have the right ingredients to form a tornado. If a WARNING is issued, or if the sirens sound in your town, take shelter immediately. A WARNING means that Doppler radar has indicated a strong area of rotation within a storm or that a spotter or chaser has visually confirmed a tornado. Get to a basement or storm shelter. If one is not available, the next best options would be a crawl space, a neighbors home, or the most interior room in your home. Never stay in a mobile home or trailer, get outdoors in a low lying spot and lie flat or move to a neighbors house or shelter. For more weather safety tips, please visit the National Weather Service’s website, www.nws.noaa.gov.

Again, tomorrow looks to be a big severe weather day across the state of Indiana, as well as Illinois and Ohio. Please keep the weather radio on, your television tuned into the local news and your attention on IndianaWeatherOnline.com & SWATChasers.com and our social media pages (Facebook and Twitter) for all the latest updates on the situation as it unfolds.

Brandon Redmond

Yes, the rain is actually moving West!

Yes, I too did a double take this morning when I saw the radar and rain was actually moving West! It tends to be a rare occurrence, but an upper level low pressure system is retrograding from Tennessee back Northwest and is causing the rain to move from East to West! So in essense, the same system that brought us rain over the weekend is moving back West and bringing more rain back into the area! Here is a radar loop.