Yes, the rain is actually moving West!

Yes, I too did a double take this morning when I saw the radar and rain was actually moving West! It tends to be a rare occurrence, but an upper level low pressure system is retrograding from Tennessee back Northwest and is causing the rain to move from East to West! So in essense, the same system that brought us rain over the weekend is moving back West and bringing more rain back into the area! Here is a radar loop.

Finally Drying Out?

Yes, it appears we will finally dry out with rain moving to our East and a couple of dry days possible. A cold front will continue to swing through the area this afternoon, therefore it will be remain brisk and overcast. Very chilly temperatures are possible tonight with lows falling into the mid 30′s. With light to moderate winds, a moist soil and overcast skies tonight, I feel the threat of frost is relatively low.

Wednesday will continue to be overcast before sunny skies dominate the weather on Thursday. A general warming trend is likely through the end of the week and into the weekend. Temperatures next week will climb even warmer into the 70′s and 80′s!

A chance for rain and storms will return over the weekend with a better chance of widepsread storms and possible severe weather next week.

Severe Storms and Record Breaking Flooding Likely

What will likely go down in the record books as one of the most significant floods of the decade, if not century will impact Southern Indiana over the next week. Farther North, significant flooding also poses a threat across Central and Northern Indiana and Western Ohio.

As much as 5-10 inches of rain could fall across Indiana and Western Ohio through Thursday. Round after round of heavy rain is likely beginning late this evening and continuing through Thursday. Flood Watches and Warnings are in effect for nearly all of Southern and Eastern Indiana into Western Ohio and additional flood and flash flood watches will likely be issued for Northern and Central Indiana by later today.

Strong and severe thunderstorms will become a possibility beginning tomorrow (Monday) evening and the threat for severe weather will continue through Thursday. Damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes will be possible.

It will be a very active weather week. I’ll have continuing coverage throughout the weekend.

Here is the National Weather Service rainfall forecast through this week.

Dangerous Storms possible Tuesday

My storm chasing team (SWAT – www.SWATChasers) will be chasing storms on Tuesday. Nearly all of Indiana is under a moderate risk, and I would not be surprised to see a high risk upgrade. I am particularly concerned about the I-70 corridor which will be near the warm front. Areas from Terre Haute to Indianapolis will be under the gun late Tuesday Afternoon/early Evening with the threat area shifting farther East/Northeast as the evening progresses.

Violent supercells with the potential for strong tornadoes are possible.

SWAT (Severe Weather Alert Team)

You don’t have to worry, IndianaWeatherOnline.com is not going anywhere, however myself, along with 3 partners (Brad, Jessie & Lucas) have created SWAT. SWAT is our tornado/storm chasing team – Severe Weather Alert Team.

SWAT has some very exciting news that we will be sharing with everyone later this week. Until then, please check out our new website, www.SWATChasers.com

Severe Weather Possible Tuesday

I am monitoring a storm that could bring severe weather to the Indiana/Ohio region Tuesday into Tuesday Night.

A Strengthening weather system will move through the Western Midwest leaving all of Indiana in the warm sector with increasing instability. As the energy associated with the low pressure system and frontal boundary collides with that instability, supercells are likely to develop across Illinois and spread into Indiana and Western Ohio by Tuesday Evening.

The Short Range Ensembles Forecast (SREF) is showing an enhanced tornado risk across Central Indiana late Tuesday Evening/Tuesday Night, spreading into Ohio during the overnight hours.

Severe Weather Risk Forecast for Tuesday/Tuesday Night:

Iowa/Illinois Storm Chase February 3rd, 2011 Pictures

What To Expect This Weekend & Next Week

After some snow showers moved across the Indiana and Ohio areas on Wednesday, a pattern change will finally cause temperatures to warm to Spring like values. Southerly winds will cause temperatures to increase on both Saturday and Sunday, with temperatures climbing into the 50′s.

A strengthening weather system over the Plain states will cause even warmer and moist air to surge into Eastern Indiana and Western Ohio on Monday. A few showers and thunderstorms could form ahead of the system Sunday Night but the better chance for rain and thunderstorms will arrive later in the afternoon on Monday and continuing into Tuesday.

The threat for severe weather is quite high late in the day on Monday, Monday Night and again early on Tuesday. With unseasonably warm and moist air in place across Eastern Indiana and Western Ohio, the stage will be set for severe thunderstorm development. Heavy rain on Monday and Tuesday is also possible with 1.5″ – 2.5″ of rain possible by Tuesday afternoon.

The latest weather forecast and severe weather information can be found at the new and redesigned www.IndianaWeatherOnline.com. The redesigned site also features an interactive radar where users can control the view of the radar.

Severe Weather Outbreak Increasingly Likely for Monday

I’m crossing my fingers that yesterday was our last snow for the season. It does appear increasingly likely that a pattern change will promote warmer weather with an increasing chance of thunderstorms.

A weak weather system will move throught he Ohio Valley during the afternoon hours on Friday and a few light rain showers are possible. Any showers should exit the region by late Friday Night.

Southerly winds will increase ahead of ridging on Saturday and warmer temperatures along with breezy conditions are likely on Saturday. Temperatures will climb into the 50′s and 60′s with temperatures continuing to warm on Sunday and Monday.

A very strong weather system will begin to take shape over the Plains on Sunday and the threat for severe weather will begin to increase to our West on Sunday Afternoon. As the warm front swings across the Ohio Valley late in the day on Sunday, a few strong and severe storms could develop. The threat for severe weather will increase on Monday as most of Indiana/Ohio is in the right quadrant of the storm and solidly located in the warm sector. As the cold front moves towards the Ohio Valley by Monday afternoon, severe storms will begin to develop and will continue into Monday Night and Tuesday Morning. This has the potential to be a fairly significant severe weather outbreak.

Heavy rain is also a possibility with 1-3 inches of rain possible across Indiana and Ohio.

Warmer Temperatures Bring Thunderstorms

Warmer temperatures will arrive here in the Ohio Valley by this weekend and early next week. A very strong weather system will deepen across the Northern Plains as warmer moist air surge Northward into the Ohio Valley.

The front looks to pass through the Indiana and Ohio late Monday Night, but until that happens, severe storms will be possible both on Sunday and on Monday.